JPMorgan Strategists Predict Stock Plunge, Recession as Early as First Half of 2023

Strategists at JPMorgan Chase predicted a recession as soon as the first half of 2023, coupled with a major stock market slide, in a research note Thursday, according to Bloomberg.

The strategists expected the S&P 500 stock index to decline roughly 12% in the first half of next year, before rebounding to end 2023 up 3% as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve slows or reverses its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes, Bloomberg reported. Despite the expectation that the stock market will rebound by the end of next year, the analysts anticipated that U.S. corporate earnings would fall roughly 9% as demand slumps and economic conditions limit companies’ ability to set higher prices.

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Stock Market Sinks, Oil Tops $130 as West Considers Russian Energy Sanctions

oil fields

The stock market dropped during early trading Monday after the U.S. benchmark oil index briefly touched its highest level since the Great Recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index measuring 30 major U.S. corporations, dropped 0.94% as of early Monday. The S&P index, which measures 500 of the largest publicly-traded companies, fell more than 0.93% while the NASDAQ, an index largely comprised of technology firms, declined 0.98%.

Late Sunday, the benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures hit more than $130 per barrel for the first time since July 2008. The index remained high on Monday, hovering above $118 per barrel, up more than 3%.

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U.S. Home Sales Continued to Grow in October as Housing Market Remains Hot

A beige house in a suburban community during the day

Home sales in the U.S. grew in October as buyers continue to enter a hot market, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Existing home sales increased at the fastest pace since January, growing 0.8% in October from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.34 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Monday. October home sales declined 5.8% compared to the figure in October 2020, with the inventory of unsold homes decreasing 12% to 1.25 million on a year-over-year basis.

“Home sales remain resilient, despite low inventory and increasing affordability challenges,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in the report. “Inflationary pressures, such as fast-rising rents and increasing consumer prices, may have some prospective buyers seeking the protection of a fixed, consistent mortgage payment.”

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Stock Market Nosedives as Massive Sell-Off Continues

Major stock market indices plummeted Monday in a continuing sell-off tied to China’s declining property value, increasing COVID-19 cases and lack of progress in Congress on increasing the debt limit.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), an index measuring 30 major U.S. corporations, dropped 1.78% on Monday. The S&P index, which measures 500 of the largest publicly traded companies, fell 1.7%, while the NASDAQ, an index composed largely of technology firms, declined 2.19%.

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Commentary: ‘Follow the Science’ with Dr. Fauci

No matter what we are told by the “experts,” science is constantly evolving and is rarely ever as settled as those in power want us to believe. Doctors are often forced to make consequential decisions and recommendations based on partial or incomplete sets of data and information. Perhaps no one knows this better than Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

According to Fauci, it is now safe for schools to reopen. All it took was the passing of President Biden’s “COVID relief bill,” which will likely be signed into law this week. “As we now have the relief bill signed at $1.9 trillion — a lot of that is going into addressing COVID-19 including help to the schools to allow them to more safely bring the kids back,” Fauci said on Monday. Considering that the Congressional Budget Office estimated that 95 percent of the money appropriated from the bill to fund schools will not be spent this year, there was no reason for Fauci to present its passing as a prerequisite for reopening schools — unless of course we fool ourselves into believing that he is motivated by science, and not by whatever the Biden administration tells him to say.

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GameStop Revolt Redditors File Class Action Lawsuit Against Robinhood for Cutting off Access to the Market as Hedge Fund Losses Mount

by Andrew Kerr   A class-action lawsuit filed against the investing app Robinhood on Thursday just hours after it prohibited its users from purchasing GameStop stock is unlikely to be successful in court, legal experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation. And federal regulators with the Securities and Exchange Commission…

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Analysis: Jobs, Housing Show Recovery Continues

There were only two insightful reports on the economy this past week—for jobs and housing. Both show impressive gains.

Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 56,000, to 787,000. They are down more than 100,000 from a month ago. There has also been a substantial decline in the insured unemployment rate to 5.7 percent from 8.7 percent a month ago. Also, the number of people receiving unemployment insurance payments fell to 8.4 million; it was 12.6 million a month ago.

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Recovery Continues, Economy Should be Back to Peak in Fourth Quarter

The rapid recovery from the lockdown continues. Economic reports from September indicate the economy has rebounded to 97 percent of its peak reached this past February. The surge in new orders for both manufacturing and service companies points to further gains in the months ahead.

These gains should bring the economy’s output and spending (GDP) back to its prior peak during the fourth quarter of the year.

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Tech Leads the Way as US Stocks Head for a Third Month of Gains

Stocks closed higher on Wall Street Tuesday, extending the market’s recent winning streak after another strong showing by technology companies.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and is on pace for its third straight monthly gain. The Nasdaq composite, which is heavily weighted with technology stocks, climbed to an all-time high for the second day in a row. Bond yields rose, another sign of increasing confidence in the economy.

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Stock Indexes Move Higher on Wall Street After a Shaky Start

Stock indexes are higher on Wall Street in choppy trading Monday as investors weigh the risks that rising coronavirus cases could pose to hopes for an economic recovery.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4% in midday trading after an initial slide of 0.6% following weakness in overseas markets as the global tally of infections approaches 9 million. The price of gold rose, a signs of caution in the market. Bond yields were mixed.

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Stocks Rally Worldwide on Hopes for Coming Economic Recovery

Stocks rose again Tuesday, part of a strong and worldwide rally for markets, after a big rebound in buying at U.S. stores and online raised hopes that the economy can escape its recession relatively quickly.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.9% for its third straight gain, bringing it back within 8% of its record set in February. Gains have built in recent weeks as reports bolster investor expectations that the worst of the downturn may have already passed.

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Wall Street Veers Higher on Fed Plan to Buy Corporate Bonds

Stocks swung solidly higher on Wall Street in afternoon trading Monday after the Federal Reserve said it would begin buying individual corporate bonds, the central bank’s latest move to prop up volatile financial markets through the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.

The S&P 500 was up 1% after being down as much as 2.5% shortly after trading began in New York. The gains followed sharp losses in Asia and more moderate ones in Europe. Worries were on the rise that new waves of coronavirus infections around the world could derail the swift economic recovery that Wall Street had seemed sure just a week ago was on the way.

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Stocks Bounce Higher on Wall Street a Day After Big Rout

New York Stock Exchange

Stocks moved higher on Wall Street in afternoon trading Friday, recouping some of their losses a day after the market had its biggest rout since mid-March.

The S&P 500 was up 0.7% a day after dropping 5.9%. The benchmark index is still headed for a weekly loss following three weeks of solid gains. Small-company stocks and bond yields moved broadly higher, signs that pessimism about the economy was easing.

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Wall Street’s Rally Zooms Higher After Surprise Gain in Jobs

Stocks are rushing higher in morning trading Friday after a much better-than-expected report on the U.S. job market gave Wall Street’s recent rally another shot of adrenaline.

The S&P 500 was up 2.2% after the government said that U.S. employers added 2.5 million workers to their payrolls last month. Economists were expecting them instead to slash another 8 million jobs amid the recession caused by the coronavirus and the shutdowns put in place to stem it.

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SEC Transaction Fee Pilot Program Could Save Big Money for Small Investors, Pensioners

SEC building

By Robert Romano   In March, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a new transaction fee pilot that would “subject stock exchange transaction fee pricing, including ‘maker-taker’ fee-and-rebate pricing models, to new temporary pricing restrictions across three test groups, and require the exchanges to prepare and publicly post data,” according to the…

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