New Poll Has Cordray-DeWine in Dead Heat Entering Final Two Months of Gubernatorial Race

Mike Dewine, Richard Cordray

A new Ohio poll shows the two candidates for governor running neck and neck while Republicans hold razor-thin leads in most of the other statewide races.

Innovation Ohio, a “progressive” think tank, released a poll Thursday showing Republican Mike DeWine and Democrat Richard Cordray locked in a dead heat for governor with two months to go before the Nov. 6 election.

DeWine is the current Ohio attorney general while Cordray is a former Washington, D.C., regulator who preceded DeWine as Ohio attorney general.

Both have been running expensive television ad campaigns throughout Ohio.

Change Research conducted an online poll of 822 likely voters in Ohio from Aug. 31 to Sept. 4. Responses were solicited from verified registered voters reached online. The margin of error is 3 percent.

In Ohio’s head-to-head matchups, the poll found:

  • In the governor’s race, Democrat Rich Cordray is tied with Republican Mike DeWine, 43% – 43%. When all four candidates are included, DeWine leads by a narrow 45% – 43%.
  • In the Senate race, Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Jim Renacci 46% – 42%.
  • In the attorney general’s race, Republican Dave Yost leads Democrat Steve Dettelbach, 41% – 37%.
  • In the auditor’s race, Republican Keith Faber leads Democrat Zach Space, 40% – 36%.
  • In the Secretary of State’s race, Republican Frank LaRose leads Democrat Kathleen Clyde, 42% – 40%.
  • In the Treasurer’s race, Republican Robert Sprague leads Democrat Rob Richardson, 41% – 38%.

The real stunner in this poll is the sudden and deep drop in support for Sherrod Brown, who has fallen 11 points in the past few weeks. The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls showed him with a 15 point lead over Renacci on Wednesday.

The poll, conducted by Change Research, is the first from Innovation Ohio’s new Polling Collaborative.

Change Research was recently the only pollster to correctly predict the results in Florida’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, according to Innovation Ohio.

“We’re excited to announce our Polling Collaborative, which will further Innovation Ohio’s mission of providing quality, research-based products about policy and politics in Ohio,” said Innovation Ohio President Janetta King. “This new project will supply quantitative data to inform voters, policymakers, and the media, adding value to the conversations around important issues being debated in our state.”

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Anthony Accardi is a reporter for The Ohio Star.







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