As Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh moves through another contentious week and towards a potential confirmation vote next week Ohio likely voters in the November election support his confirmation by a six point margin.
Forty six point five percent support Kavanaugh’s confirmation, 40.3 percent oppose him and 13.2 percent don’t know or are unsure. Despite the recent allegation of a 36 year old unsubstantiated allegation of a sexual assault support for Kavanaugh is strong.
Incumbent Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is facing his own scandal regarding treatment of women.
Nevertheless, Brown is opposing Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
Brown’s Republican opponent, Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH-16) , who trails Brown by 10 points in The Ohio Star Poll, 52 percent to 42 percent, is strongly backing Kavanaugh.
Republican Senator Rob Portman is defending Kavanaugh and helping to guide him through the hearings.
Ohio voters care about the Kavanaugh confirmation process and most indicated that it will impact their vote in the November election.
Likely voters were asked: “How big of a factor are potential votes on the confirmation of federal judges and Supreme Court Justices in determining whether you will vote for Sherrod Brown or Jim Renacci for U.S. Senate?” with 66.8 percent saying it will be “important” in making their decision. 47.5 percent replied “very important” with 19.3 percent saying the confirmation vote will be a “somewhat important” factor in swinging their vote. 24.5 percent say it is either “not very important” or “doesn’t matter” at all to them.
Ohio Star political editor Steve Gill says the confirmation issue is a particularly important issue to those who support President Trump and were the key to his carrying Ohio in 2016. “The confirmation of conservative judges and Justices is a critically important issue to most Trump voters, especially among Christian Evangelicals,” Gill notes, “and this confirmation vote — as well as what are likely to be future Supreme Court nominations — are an opportunity for Renacci to move some of those Brown voters into his column over the next several weeks.”
The Triton Poll conducted on behalf of The Ohio Star from September 18-20, 2018 surveyed 1003 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent. Gill notes that the survey probably slightly oversampled Democrat voters since it has a 1 percent weighted advantage for Republicans when the state leans a bit more Republican than that voter distribution percentage.
Read the top line results of the survey:180920 Triton - Ohio Star Statewide Ohio Survey - Topline Results