‘Secret’ COVID-19 Model Touted by Acton and DeWine That Predicted 10,000 Daily Cases on Peak Sunday Was Off by 700 Percent


Ohio’s official coronavirus model was projecting 10,000 new cases per day for Sunday’s peak, but only 1,317 new cases were reported.

As recently as March 29, the Ohio Department of Health’s forecast was predicting that the coronavirus pandemic would reach its peak in the state on April 19 when 10,000 new cases would be reported, The Ohio Star said.

Under that prediction, Ohio’s model was off by 8,683. The Ohio Department of Health said Monday that 1,317 new cases were reported between Sunday and Monday.

Ohio’s coronavirus model was changed at some point to predict 1,607 new cases for Sunday’s peak. Even under that projection, the model was still off by 290 cases.

Between Sunday and Monday, Ohio’s confirmed caseload increased from 11,602 to 12,919.

For Saturday, the day before the projected peak, the model predicted 1,600 new cases in Ohio. In actuality, the state saw 1,380 new cases reported Saturday, meaning the model was off by 220 cases. The model was previously projecting well over 9,000 new cases for Saturday.

The Ohio Department of Health releases new data daily at 2 p.m., so the data released Monday provides a picture of what happened on Sunday, the day of the peak.

Department of Health Director Amy Acton and Gov. Mike DeWine previously estimated that Ohio would need roughly three-times its normal hospital capacity for Sunday’s coronavirus peak. DeWine said on April 1 that “in about two weeks” Ohio would “start seeing it very hard in our hospital admissions.”

Between Sunday and Monday, Ohio reported 88 new hospitalizations, 33 new ICU admissions, and 38 deaths. The Department of Health says 90,839 Ohioans have been tested for the virus as of Monday.

A model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) thinks that Ohio has already passed both its peak resource use and peak in daily deaths. The IHME says that Ohio reached peak resource use on April 15, when the state needed 1,230 hospital beds and had 14,290 beds available.

Overall, the IHME model predicts that Ohio will have 716 COVID-19 deaths over a four month period.

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Anthony Gockowski is managing editor of The Minnesota Sun and The Ohio Star. Follow Anthony on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Image “Dr. Amy Acton” by Ohio Channel and “Gov Mike DeWine” is by Gov Mike DeWine.







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3 Thoughts to “‘Secret’ COVID-19 Model Touted by Acton and DeWine That Predicted 10,000 Daily Cases on Peak Sunday Was Off by 700 Percent”

  1. kevin

    It gets more and more clear every single day that the “expert” guidance on this pandemic was extremely bad and all over the place. Ohioans need to use their best judgement and make their own way. The damage done by the flailing governments of the US will take years to repair.

  2. John Smith

    The stay hoe order needs lifted. It should be up to the individual to determine if they want to wear a mask. Precautions were taken and the estimate were way under. If the first test hadn’t been done, it would have looked like a really bad influenza year with the increase of deaths. More people die annually from cardiac issues, strokes, trauma, cancer and host of other things. Why don’t we step up and fix those problems as well. We cannot tank the economy again like this has done. You over reacted this time and are dragging it out. The next time you make these orders, there will be alot more resistance as people remember. Lets get people back to work and quit pussy footing around with a plan drug out over months and months.


    The model seems way off the mark. Ohio’s economy is essential so why are we planning to move like a turtle? Is there Fabien Society philosophies involved?