by Justine Brooke Murray
Republican J.D. Vance’s lead over Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan grew up to 4 points in Ohio’s Senate race 53 days out from Election Day, according to a new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released Friday, in a bad sign for Democrats’ hopes of taking the Senate.
Vance held a 44% to 40% lead in polling conducted by Emerson College and The Hill in Ohio’s race for U.S. Senate. He previously led Ryan by three points, 45% to 42%, according to Emerson College’s polling in August.
Vance is now leading Ryan by 2.3 points in average polling conducted by RealClearPolitics.
Given that Ohio leans red, Republican candidates were always expected to have a slight advantage, according to The Hill. The Cook Political Report rates the senatorial race as “lean Republican.”
“Independent voters favor J.D. Vance by a two-point margin, 51% of which name the economy as their most important issue,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said in the report. “Additionally, a stark gender divide exists on the Senate ballot, reflective of other Senate polling this cycle. Men break for Vance by 19 points, whereas women break for Ryan by eight points.”
Ryan and his Democratic allies still say they have a chance at flipping the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman, The Hill reported. Meanwhile, Ryan is publicly expressing concerns on Twitter over the lack of donations toward his campaign.
Can I be honest? The summer fundraising slump was supposed to end by now, but our numbers have fallen off a cliff.
This month marks the LAST full quarter before the election and it looks like we’re falling behind on our most important goal yet. Can you RT to spread the word?
— Tim Ryan (@TimRyan) September 15, 2022
Republicans hold an even greater lead in Ohio’s gubernatorial election, with incumbent Republican Gov. Mike DeWine ranking higher than Democratic challenger Nan Whaley 50% to 33%, according to Emerson College.
In hypothetical 2024 race, former President Trump leads President Joe Biden in Ohio 50% to 40%. When asked how the events of January 6 affected their view of Trump, 35% of respondents said it made them more likely to support Trump in 2024, while 34% said it made them less likely.
Trump won Ohio in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Emerson College and The Hill surveyed 1,000 very likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
Neither Vance nor Ryan’s campaign immediately responded to the DCNF’s requests for comment.
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