Fed Study: Ending Pandemic Unemployment Aid Connected to ‘Substantial Rise’ in Employment

States that ended pandemic unemployment aid saw “a substantial rise” in employment, according to a recent working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The study, which used data from 46 states and Washington, D.C., found that “in the three months following a state’s [emergency unemployment benefits] termination, employment increased by about 37 people for every 100-person reduction in EUB recipients.”

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Commentary: One Way to Fix Plummeting Birthrates Is to Stop Bashing America

Mothers hand holding infants hand

The National Center for Health Statistics, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention subagency, reported this week that America’s fertility rate dropped for the sixth consecutive year. Total births declined by 4 percent in 2020, down to 1,637.5 children per 1,000 women. The statistical replacement rate for the U.S. population, by contrast, is roughly 2,100 births per 1,000 women. Overall, the 3,605,201 births last year in the United States represented the lowest number since Jimmy Carter’s presidency.

It is perhaps too early to tell whether yet another annual incremental birthrate decline is anomalous, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, or flows naturally from existing demographic trendlines. Sociologists and demographers will pore over the data, but it is difficult to ignore the broader trend and place the blame squarely—or even predominantly—on the virus and the myriad draconian lifestyle restrictions the virus engendered.

On the contrary, many had speculated before this week’s report that the extended COVID lockdowns might lead to a one-time annual increase in the birthrate as couples sheltered in place together for months on end.

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