Goldman Sachs Issues Stock Market Warning

U.S. investors are significantly underestimating the risk of a recession, potentially increasing the impact of a recession next year, economists at Goldman Sachs warned in a Monday research note, according to Bloomberg.

Researchers at Goldman estimate a 39 percent chance of a slowdown in U.S. growth, but risk assets only account for an 11 percent chance, Bloomberg reported. By underestimating the chance of a recession, investors are increasing their exposure to the effects of “recession scares” in 2023, the analysts warned.

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Nasdaq Expected to Underperform the S&P 500 for First Time in over Five Years

The Nasdaq Composite, a technology-heavy index of publicly-traded companies, is set to underperform the S&P 500 for the first time since 2016, according to CNBC.

The S&P 500, a stock market index consisting of the 500 largest publicly-traded companies in the U.S., climbed 28% in 2021 as of Monday, while the Nasdaq was up 23% on a year-over-year basis, according to CNBC. The S&P 500 previously beat the Nasdaq in 2016 and 2011.

The Nasdaq had a strong start to 2021, almost doubling the S&P 500 in February, CNBC reported. Trading slowed after the arrival of the COVID-19 vaccines, which boosted sentiment among investors that the pandemic was ending, reducing demand for remote work technology and other tech-focused goods.

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Stock Market Nosedives as Massive Sell-Off Continues

Major stock market indices plummeted Monday in a continuing sell-off tied to China’s declining property value, increasing COVID-19 cases and lack of progress in Congress on increasing the debt limit.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), an index measuring 30 major U.S. corporations, dropped 1.78% on Monday. The S&P index, which measures 500 of the largest publicly traded companies, fell 1.7%, while the NASDAQ, an index composed largely of technology firms, declined 2.19%.

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Stocks Rise on Jobs Data, S&P 500 Ends Week with Solid Gain

Stocks are closing higher Thursday after a report showed the U.S. job market continues to climb out of the crater created by the coronavirus pandemic in the spring. The S&P 500 rose 0.45% and finished the holiday-shortened week with a gain of 4%. Stocks also rose across Europe and Asia, while oil prices strengthened on hopes that a recovering economy will mean more demand. Worries about the virus are still weighing on investors, however. Florida reported another sharp increase in confirmed cases, helping to cut the S&P 500′s earlier gains by more than half. The bond market was also showing continued caution.

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