Commentary: Talking Heads Push One Predictor to Key Elections but Ignore the Raw Numbers Behind Them – and That Changes Everything

There has been a lot of talk during this election cycle about “voter enthusiasm;” which side has it, what are its causes, and what might it all mean for the final result. Much of it is propaganda that should be ignored, but there are some numbers and data that can help illuminate the terrain. All that attention is appropriate, given that each and every election depends entirely on who shows up to vote.

Let’s start with the propaganda.

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Ryan to Appear with Biden in Ohio Despite President’s Low Approval Rating

U.S. Representative Tim Ryan (D-OH-13), a candidate for U.S. Senate in Ohio, said this weekend that he will make a public appearance alongside President Joe Biden despite the latter’s abysmal approval rating in the Buckeye State.

A July survey from Morning Consult indicated Biden suffered from a -23-point net approval rating in Ohio. Ryan is himself struggling to win sufficient favor with Ohioans in his race against Republican attorney, venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance who maintains a 3.7-point average polling lead against the Democrat according to RealClearPolitics.com. 

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Over 60 Percent of Americans Say Biden’s Policies Are to Blame for Accelerating Inflation

Over 60% of Americans said that President Joe Biden’s policies were at least somewhat responsible for the accelerating inflation in the United States, a new poll shows.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll released Tuesday shows that around 40% of respondents said that the Biden administration’s policies were “very responsible” for higher inflation, while 22% said that they were “somewhat responsible.” The poll results come as inflation levels hit record highs and economists predict that inflation, along with supply chain shortages, could persist into 2022.

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Federal Unemployment Benefits Spur Hiring Crisis, Poll Shows

Woman Stressed at Computer

Republicans have argued for months that federal unemployment benefits are keeping Americans from going back to work, and a new survey seems to support that claim.

The survey from Morning Consult released Wednesday found that 1.8 million Americans have turned down jobs even though they were unemployed saying, “I receive enough unemployment benefits without having to work.”

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